Aggregate Return from Efficiency Averages

UPDATE: The formula for ROP has changed and AREA has thus changed with it. The changes are reflected below. UPDATE 2: It isn’t “ROP” anymore. Too many people complained about steals being involved as part of power and I agree. The stat is now called SPOT (Scoring Position Obtained Technique).

In baseball the prevailing wisdom says that getting on base and hitting for power are the most important factors to scoring runs. I disagreed with this notion and even toyed with the stats to try to disprove it; well, nothing doing. Apparently it’s more about power than I thought.

For a long time I’ve argued that batting average is just as important and it is essential to helping drive in runs. Though true that batting average is important to driving in runs, getting on base in scoring position is more important because of the opportunities it provides your teammates to bring you home.

Hitting for power, though, is only as relevant at the clip that a batter gets hits.A player that doesn’t hit for power but maintains a high batting average is useful as is the player that hits for a lot of power with a low batting average. They just belong at different spots in the lineup.

When looking at a batter’s hitting stats you want to know what kind of hits he’s getting.

The more often a batter hits for power the better. Obviously, a homer is more important than a triple and a triple more important than a double, but power in general is important.

If a batter often hits for power it doesn’t matter if he generally only hits doubles; what matters is that he’s always in scoring position. If he doesn’t hit for much power, though, you need that player to generally get more triples or, better yet, home runs.

Regardless, we need to know what type of hits these players are getting and Slugging Percentage just isn’t doing it.

"Every time I see you hit one in the air you owe me 20 push-ups."

You hear about players like Ichiro Suzuki that put on hitting displays in batting practice (not you, Willie Mays Hayes), but turn into singles machines too spite their power once the game starts. The fact is that the best-of the-best, the guys that make the “Greatest of all Time” conversations, are the ones that can hit for average, get power hits at a high percentage, and have the majority of their power hits be home runs.

What we have here is a case of three statistics pulling on one another.

Introducing two statistics that better explain this issue: Scoring Position Obtained Technique and Production of Power.

Scoring Position Obtained Technique (SPOT) is the ratio of extra-base hits and second base steals to total times on base. This shows how often a player gets on base in scoring position. Players that lack power but make up for it in speed are often overlooked by traditional sabermetricians and this formula properly accounts for their importance. The formula is very simple:

SPOT = (2B + 3B + HR + SB2) / (H+BB+HBP)

Production of Power (POP) is the ratio of power bases acquired to potential power bases. A power base is any base after first base. To explain, second base is the first power base, third base is the second, and home plate is the third power base. When a batter hits a home run they achieved 3-of-3 potential power bases. This is a similar theory to what developed slugging percentage but removes singles from the equation as singles have nothing to do with hitting for power.

POP = ((2B) + (3B*2) + (HR*3)) / ((2B + 3B + HR)*3)

So instead of the current, understood, slash-stats of BA/OBP/SLUG with the all-in-one wonder OPS, I propose the elimination of SLUG in favor of SPOT and POP and, with this revelation, the development of a better all-in-one stat: AREA.

Aggregate Return from Efficiency Averages (AREA) is more about geometry than advanced statistics. The acronym stems from nothing more than this rating looking to determine the area a batter’s four slash-stats cover. The more AREA a batter covers, the more they produce at the plate. AREAs will, for the most part, look like a statistic similar to batting average.

AREA = (((SPOT+POP) / 2) * (OBP)) + (((SPOT+POP) / 2) * (BA))

To properly map this it requires an X-Y plot graph. The Y-Axis is the on-base axis and the X-Axis is the power axis. The maximum X & Y values are ‘1’ and the minimum X & Y values are ‘-1.’ The four points placed on the graph are determined by their relative average at the given place on the graph. For example, the points (0, .400) would refer to a player’s OBP and (0, -.300)  would be the plotted point of the player’s BA. Similarly, (.667, 0) and (-.400, 0) would be the respective POPs and SPOTs of the same given player. On this plot you can then connect the dots into quadrilaterals. The bigger the given shape, the better a player is at bat. (NOTE: Negative numbers are only used for plotting simplicity. Take the absolute value of these numbers to determine the player’s given value for that statistic.)

To give you an idea of what happened in the world of AREA last season, I looked at every team and the all players in Major League Baseball with at least 500 plate appearances in 2009 (there were 143):

The Top 10:

NAME	AREA	OPS	AVG	OBP	SLG	SPOT	POP
Albert Pujols	0.392	1.101	0.327	0.443	0.658	0.345	0.674
Joe Mauer	0.360	1.031	0.365	0.444	0.587	0.234	0.655
Alex Rodriguez	0.358	0.934	0.286	0.402	0.532	0.284	0.757
Prince Fielder	0.356	1.014	0.299	0.412	0.602	0.291	0.710
Troy Tulowitzki	0.353	0.929	0.297	0.377	0.552	0.346	0.702
Mark Reynolds	0.350	0.892	0.260	0.349	0.543	0.420	0.729
Hanley Ramirez	0.347	0.953	0.342	0.410	0.543	0.345	0.577
Ben Zobrist	0.345	0.948	0.297	0.405	0.543	0.322	0.661
Ryan Howard	0.340	0.931	0.279	0.360	0.571	0.368	0.698
Carl Crawford	0.340	0.816	0.305	0.364	0.452	0.434	0.582

The Worst 10:

NAME	AREA	OPS	AVG	OBP	SLUG	SPOT	POP
Jason Kendall	0.168	0.636	0.241	0.331	0.305	0.169	0.420
David Eckstein	0.171	0.657	0.260	0.323	0.334	0.190	0.398
Edgar Renteria	0.191	0.635	0.250	0.307	0.328	0.206	0.480
Emilio Bonifacio	0.194	0.611	0.252	0.303	0.308	0.217	0.481
Randy Winn	0.200	0.671	0.262	0.318	0.353	0.280	0.408
Skip Schumaker	0.201	0.757	0.303	0.364	0.393	0.192	0.410
Luis Castillo	0.206	0.733	0.302	0.387	0.346	0.161	0.438
Russell Martin	0.207	0.681	0.250	0.352	0.329	0.175	0.513
Jhonny Peralta	0.207	0.691	0.254	0.316	0.375	0.232	0.496
Pedro Feliz	0.218	0.694	0.266	0.308	0.386	0.229	0.530

2009 Major League Baseball Teams:

TEAM	AREA	OPS	AVG	OBP	SLG	SPOT	POP	R
New York Yankees	0.296	0.840	0.283	0.362	0.478	0.297	0.621	915
Tampa Bay Rays	0.283	0.782	0.263	0.343	0.439	0.329	0.605	804
Boston Red Sox	0.280	0.806	0.270	0.352	0.454	0.305	0.595	873
Texas Rangers	0.280	0.765	0.260	0.320	0.445	0.341	0.623	784
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim	0.276	0.791	0.285	0.350	0.441	0.284	0.587	883
Philadelphia Phillies	0.276	0.781	0.258	0.334	0.447	0.318	0.615	820
Colorado Rockies	0.271	0.784	0.261	0.343	0.441	0.298	0.599	803
Minnesota Twins	0.265	0.774	0.274	0.345	0.429	0.257	0.598	817
Toronto Blue Jays	0.264	0.773	0.266	0.333	0.440	0.292	0.589	798
Chicago White Sox	0.263	0.741	0.258	0.329	0.412	0.277	0.621	724
Detroit Tigers	0.260	0.747	0.260	0.331	0.416	0.257	0.622	743
Milwaukee Brewers	0.260	0.767	0.263	0.341	0.426	0.259	0.601	785
Los Angeles Dodgers	0.256	0.758	0.270	0.346	0.412	0.260	0.571	780
Arizona Diamondbacks	0.255	0.742	0.253	0.324	0.418	0.302	0.582	720
Florida Marlins	0.252	0.756	0.268	0.340	0.416	0.257	0.572	775
Cleveland Indians	0.252	0.756	0.264	0.339	0.417	0.269	0.565	773
St. Louis Cardinals	0.251	0.747	0.263	0.332	0.415	0.271	0.574	730
Washington Nationals	0.249	0.743	0.258	0.337	0.406	0.253	0.584	710
Baltimore Orioles	0.249	0.747	0.268	0.332	0.415	0.264	0.566	741
Houston Astros	0.248	0.719	0.260	0.319	0.400	0.287	0.571	643
Kansas City Royals	0.248	0.723	0.259	0.318	0.405	0.285	0.573	686
Seattle Mariners	0.245	0.716	0.258	0.314	0.402	0.278	0.580	640
Chicago Cubs	0.245	0.739	0.255	0.332	0.407	0.260	0.576	707
Oakland Athletics	0.244	0.725	0.262	0.328	0.397	0.284	0.543	759
Atlanta Braves	0.243	0.744	0.263	0.339	0.405	0.248	0.559	735
Cincinnati Reds	0.243	0.712	0.247	0.318	0.394	0.281	0.579	673
New York Mets	0.237	0.729	0.270	0.335	0.394	0.267	0.515	671
San Diego Padres	0.234	0.702	0.242	0.321	0.381	0.260	0.572	638
Pittsburgh Pirates	0.234	0.705	0.252	0.318	0.387	0.277	0.545	637
San Francisco Giants	0.234	0.698	0.257	0.309	0.389	0.275	0.551	657

And for Fun: My 2009 Lineup Card featuring the best players at each position:

NAME	POS	Bats	AREA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	SPOT	POP
Ben Zobrist	2B	Switch	0.345	0.297	0.405	0.543	0.948	0.322	0.661
Alex Rodriguez	3B	Right	0.358	0.286	0.402	0.532	0.934	0.284	0.757
Albert Pujols	1B	Right	0.392	0.327	0.443	0.658	1.101	0.345	0.674
Joe Mauer	C	Left	0.360	0.365	0.444	0.587	1.031	0.234	0.655
Troy Tulowitzki	SS	Right	0.353	0.297	0.377	0.552	0.929	0.346	0.702
Adam Lind	DH	Left	0.324	0.305	0.370	0.562	0.932	0.339	0.621
Justin Upton	RF	Right	0.337	0.300	0.366	0.532	0.898	0.367	0.646
Carl Crawford	LF	Left	0.340	0.305	0.364	0.452	0.816	0.434	0.582
Matt Kemp	CF	Right	0.340	0.297	0.352	0.490	0.842	0.374	0.672

*Data was compiled using information provided by Baseball Prospectus and Baseball-Reference.com.*

Off the DL

Let’s save each other a lot of time and skip my apologizing for not blogging in a month.

In fact, if you’re a fan of all my work then you should know that I have been blogging, and running the show in fantasy baseball.

In personal news I started an internship two weeks ago and have been very happy with it. Earlier this summer I was concerned with getting an internship and what type of role I would be filling. To be where I am now is nothing short of the best possible outcome.

Regarding the Front Office Fan, I have seriously let the site down in taking a month off. Since starting the site I worried I would take extended hiatuses once classes resumed in the fall. I can promise you it won’t be anything like August, 2009. Senior year is starting this week, how do you slow down time?

I have a lot of plans regarding new segments. One of my favorite things to do in sports is try to make analogies across sports and when one arises I’ll be sure to try and blog about it. Later this week you’ll see a new tabbed section at the top of the page and on Friday you’ll have a month’s worth of Fan Favorites.

Lastly, as part of my senior year I am working on a thesis assignment. I have more or less finalized on the topic and think it would work best to blog about the subject as I work on it and give you a chance to see something that I think is important in the world of sports.

So expect some of those things later this week and hopefully a blog entry not too far into the future.

Fan Favorites

Every Friday I’ll post links to things I found interesting. It’s a new idea I call a “Link Dump.” Guaranteed you’ll find thousands of blogs start to do the same thing in the coming weeks and months. Just remember where you saw this idea first.

Brian Billick: Former Ravens Coach Tackles NFL Economics By Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg, Wall Stree Journal – Current Fox football analyst, Brian Billick, does an interview with the WSJ about the blah, blah, blah… But seriously, how pumped are you for football season? Thank God the media circus called, “The Trade Deadline” is over. Training Camp is in session and it’s time for some touchdowns, fumbles and “Jacked Up!” segments!

What Are Practice Jerseys Really Worth? By Darren Rovell, CNBC – I love the idea of teams selling their practice jerseys for advertising revenue. I think it’s a great idea. But teams of the four majors, I implore you, please don’t sell game jerseys. Please?

Baseball’s magic number: 100 By Tim Kurkjian – From the guy that has brought you some of my least favorite segments on ESPN comes an article about something Red Sox fans knew back in 2002. Way to write a timely piece.

The Revolutionary By Howard Bryant, ESPN – To many, the jury is still out on Billy Beane. Is he a good or bad baseball general manager? Whatever your opinion of him it is impossible to deny the lasting impact he (Michael Lewis?) has had on baseball.

Fan Favorites

Every Friday I’ll post links to things I found interesting. It’s a new idea I call a “Link Dump.” Guaranteed you’ll find thousands of blogs start to do the same thing in the coming weeks and months. Just remember where you saw this idea first.

LeBron’s attempt to hide college kid’s dunk disturbingly revealing By Phil Taylor, SI.com – Listen, we’ve all seen the videos by now and we’re all disappointed in them. They were nothing. However, it is alarming that the athlete whom best transcends the four major American sports would act like this. I like LeBron and it would be unfortunate if he became the next fallen star. On a side link: the Associated Press has reported that Nike will return the tapes to their original owners. Nike said “It was never about the play or the player, it was about our media policy.” It’s interesting to note that those who filmed the dunk never intended to get that on tape either and clearly have more footage than just those few seconds of inglorious dunkage. So if it wasn’t about the play or player, why return the tapes and go against your media policy?

Why the Premier League can’t keep up By Chris Lesley, Sports Agent Blog – Really interesting piece. It was interesting to see that Russia had the lowest tax rate of the mentioned countries second only to the UAE. Russia used to be communist right?

The 10 best sporting events to see live By Rick Reilly, ESPN – OK let’s make one thing clear: If I ever see the Iditarod live I’ve had a nervous breakdown and moved to Alaska where I also hope to watch Russell Crowe captain a team of pond hockey players that improbably face-off against the NHL’s New York Rangers.

‘Is Tim Tebow a Virgin?’ and Other Burning Questions for SEC Media Days By Clay Travis, FanHouse – I have wondered multiple times if the Gators quarterback remains abstinent. He is renowned to be one of the most God-Fearing male athletes of our time so it wouldn’t be a stretch if he is a virgin. Could he really have the discipline to turn down the many girls that approach him? And if so, who’s to say he doesn’t have the discipline to be a good NFL quarterback? Oh, this article also talks about SEC football by the way.

Are You There ROI? It’s Me, Pepsi

The Map

Raise your hand if you’ve ever heard of the Bullrun. Bueller? Bueller?

Last week some people got into cars and decided… well I don’t feel like explaining it, so here’s the official explanation from Bullrun:

The Bullrun brand originated from the now legendary Bullrun USA car rally. It is the most glamorous and high profile “luxury lifestyle” automotive rally.

Each year up to a 100 cars, driven by celebrities and individuals from around the world, embark on an epic seven-day rolling road-trip, partying in a different city every night.

Bullrun crosses the USA, bringing together a celebrity strewn cast of characters and for an unforgettable adventure, where, the only obligatory goals are to party, drive and enjoy…

Fuelled by an impressive schedule of public and private events at the finest venues and hotels and in the most exciting cities in America, ’Bullrunners’ make their way from one checkpoint to the next, only learning their next destination daily, rocking to a close each night in the party capitals of America.

Entry to this event is $20,000. This covers both drivers for accommodations, rally entry and meals and parties for the week of the rally.

This live rally event is filmed for TV in 96 countries outside the United States (See Bullrun TV). The TV show will be in it\’s 6th season in 2009. The title of this TV series is \’Cops, Cars & Superstars\’.

• Celebrities are mentioned twice, so we know who this event is catered to…
• 20 G’s to race in this event. Kind of affirms the clientele.
• “Only obligatory goals are to party, drive and enjoy…” sounds awesome. Now where’s my tool box?
• The rally is filmed for 96 countries outside the United States. So the US doesn’t air the event which would make sense seeing as this seems to be illegal and all… Wait. There is a US television show? What’s the Speed Channel? Goldberg, is that you?

This show format is a \’spin off\’ and based on the legendary Bullrun Rally (above). It is a totally separate event as 12 teams with their cars compete for $200,000 over 4,000 miles in a 10 episode reality elimination TV show (See Bullrun Reality TV).

Referred to as ‘Bullrun’, the show aired on MTV Networks / Spike TV in March 2007 with production of Bullrun Season II due to begin in 2008, airing in 2009. This TV series is also shown around the world in 50 countries.

This is show free to applicants if selected for the TV show. Individuals who want to be Contestants or Flag Girls in this show can set up Driver or Flag Girl profiles on this website and will automatically be considered for the show.

You get a more complete picture of Bullrun when you read the quotes the site posts on their home page.

“The most glamorous rally in the world!” – OK magazine – If OK Magazine says something is “glamorous” I think they are contradicting themselves and straying from their mission. Ultimately, they are forgetting their roots and pandering to the popular crowd, people that wouldn’t settle for “OK.” To thine own self be true, OK Magazine.

“It was glorious. And we rode shotgun for all 3000 miles!” – ESPN Magazine – Did you even offer shotty to the guy in the back seat? He needs leg room too! That’s just rude.

“A 3000-mile rolling party that is half Cannonball Run, half Mardi Gras”! – TRADER Magazine – I really don’t know what a half cannonball is, but is half Mardi Gras when the girl flashes only one boob for a half set of beads?

“Its really cool!” – Helena Christensen – Wow!

“Fantastic people!” – Carl Lewis – Yippee!

“Pushes the style pedal right to the floor.” – FORBES Magazine – …except for that one guy that pushed the breaks and was like “Guys I think you’re still drunk from last night. Maybe you should wait a little while before driving.” Loser.

“Seriously, the best week of my life” – Dennis Rodman – Really? You had an affair with Madonna, a honeymoon with Carmen Electra, won 5 NBA Championships, and wrestled alongside Hulk Hogan and the nWo. And this was the best week of your life?

“Bullrun is hot!” – Paris Hilton – Oh, God… Shut up!

“I am more excited to do Bullrun than when I won the Indy 500” – Mario Andretti – What about when you beat Bowser and saved Princess Peach? Sorry, wrong Mario.

“Turbo-charged but highly civilized.” – Sunday Times Style Magazine – I know Sunday with the Style that has good Times inside a Magazine is published in England and all, but what does that review mean?

Oddly enough, I can’t find these quotes anywhere online except on Bullrun’s website. You’d think that at least the quotes from OK, ESPN, TRADER, FORBES, and Sunday Times Style Magazines would have these lines readily available in articles online, but they are not.

I'm all for events that get Kim Kardashian to dress like this.

From what I can tell the rally is an illegal/government frowned upon race across these great United States featuring celebrities and their rich brethren with video recorders. Now that’s all fine and good, but how does something that makes so much money (20k per race team x 100 racers = a cool million), have a huge official sponsor (Pepsi Max), get wall-to-wall coverage on its start from various gossip blogs (thanks again for the view Miss Kardashian), and apparently have a spin-off show on a cable channel less known than Versus (again, that’s the SPEED channel) not get more publicity and lack more purpose? From the various articles on Bullrun, the race is allegedly a charity but the only mention I can find on the official website is a place to donate money to GREEN charity to offset the drivers’ carbon footprint. Where is all this money from the entry fees going?

More importantly, is Pepsi Max’s endorsement of this event the worst official sponsorship in the history of sports? Listen, this event is getting very limited exposure in the United States and I know that we’re only a small piece of the pie, but how popular is the Bullrun series in the 96 countries that cover the event? Will the sponsorship actually be effective? What will it take for Pepsi to get their return on investment? It’s interesting to note that Pepsi’s website mentions nothing of the race.

If a tree falls in a forest and no one is there to hear it does it make a sound?

Other  Bullrun sponsors with even less exposure are Manhattan Motor Sports, Spyker Cars, West Coast Customs, Bernard Richards Manufacture, Maps.com, Shelby Performance Sports, Jagermeister, Capture Technologies Inc., Luxury Boy Toys, Duck and Cover, and The Carroll Shelby Children’s Foundation (a charity that Bullrun has advertised for, but it isn’t clear if any proceeds from the race go to the Foundation). At least Pepsi had exposure; these guys just have links at the bottom of Bullrun’s website. Maybe these are the worst sponsorships in the history of sports?

In conclusion, having made fun of Pepsi Max for the worst use of money since some idiot in New York bought a $2,500 seat in the New Yankee Stadium, 81 times, and made allusions to the racers and Home Depot products, I’d like to make a proposition:

Any rich reader of the Front Office Fan that would like to donate a high speed vehicle, the $20,000 entry fee and a credit card with no spending limit so that I can race in, and win, Bullrun 2010 will receive:

• A blog update of my experience every day.
• Printed, autographed copies of said blogs.
• Winnings, if any, will be donated to the charity of your choice and made in your name.
• My eternal gratitude.

Maybe Pepsi Max could sponsor me? They seem to be good at making frivolous sponsorships and I wouldn’t mind taking the official whip for a spin.

Fan Favorites

Every Friday I’ll post links to things I found interesting. It’s a new idea I call a “Link Dump.” Guaranteed you’ll find thousands of blogs start to do the same thing in the coming weeks and months. Just remember where you saw this idea first.

Baseball Research Veers Into Left Field By Austin Kelley, Wall Street Journal – By now most die hard sports fans know that there a strong statistical undercurrent in the world of sports scouting and that, for the most part, it started with baseball. This article talks about other kinds of sabermetric studies that I’m sure Malcolm Gladwell love.

Everyone Is Now The Sports Media By Howard K. Brodwin, MediaPost – What’s the opposite of stupid? Smart? Brodwin writes a very intelligent piece on the new sports media.

Twitter’s Internal Strategy Laid Bare: To Be “The Pulse of the Planet” By Erick Schonfeld, TechCrunch – So a hacker broke into a Twitter executive’s emails and data and sent this information to TechCrunch. The information was Twitter’s long-term plans and goals. TC claims that they selectively published these so to not hurt Twitter.

Ticket Realizing

Each year thousands of fans flock to ticket resellers to find seats for sold-out games and often times buy tickets for three, four and five times the face value of the seats. Some teams have fought resellers where others have embraced them and formed resale sponsorships.

Most often these sponsorships are profitable for owners, but sports conglomerates (ownership groups controlling multiple franchises) would be better served through synergy and Ticket Realizing.

Synergy: The essence of linking mutually controlled products for the advancement of the larger entity.

I wrote that definition. Pretty good, huh?

Ticket Realizing will grow multiple sport and entertainment products by selling readily available tickets of one product with free tickets to a high demand event.

By my count there are 30 owners (list at the bottom of the article) of the four major American sports that own teams in multiple leagues (for example and owner of an NHL team owning a team in the NBA – or – an NFL owner also owning an MLS team). Some of these owners have multiple franchises in the same market and others own franchises across several markets. Ticket sales for some of these teams are so competitive that they are always in contention to sell out.

OK, sports conglomerates listen up, because I’ve got an idea for you: You’ve got a product that sells out and one that doesn’t, right? Sell season tickets/ticket packages to the one that doesn’t sell out and include free tickets to the game that does sell out. Dolla Dolla Bills.

Things to consider in the sale of these tickets:

• Depending on the quality of the seats, ownership may gain, lose or break even on these ticket sales.
• It should be assumed that concessions, parking, merchandise, etc. revenue will increase at the packaged team’s games where the sellout will remain the same.
• This promotion should be very easy to market:
  • Fans automatically get the tickets to the game they want to see.
  • The fan will likely be spending as much for the season tickets and single game package as they would to go to a reseller like StubHub and buy just the single game tickets.
• Regardless of any profit from the ticket sales both sports are being grown whether it be the fans of the sellout sport now attending the non-sellout’s games or vice versa.
• Presumably, the increased ticket sales for the second-tier sport would increase total attendance numbers and, therefore, make sponsorships, advertising, radio and television deals more lucrative by showing the marketers the greater attendance.

We already know from a 2004 study in Sport Marketing Quarterly that the scarcity of tickets drives a fan’s desire to have them. A hypothetical situation was posed to fans with low and high identification with the University of Kentucky men’s basketball team and their playing a game in the Sweet Sixteen against UNC. From “Likelihood of Attending a Sporting Event as a Function of Ticket Scarcity and Team Identification:”

Fans learning that the ticket was scarce and highly identified fans were particularly likely to report an interest in attending the game, and these two variables did not interact…

The scarcity effect detailed here can explain much of the interest in these items. Individuals marketing such items could likely increase interest in the items and, potentially, sales price by providing the impression that the items in question are rare (a common strategy among merchants in this arena)…

The second potential move can be explained by the reactance theory. According to this theory, individuals react strongly to situations in which their freedom to choose an outcome or behavioral option has been removed. Typically, they will respond in a manner that reestablishes their freedom of choice. It follows that in sport consumption environments, fans desire scarce tickets because they want to maintain their freedom of choice with respect to attendance decisions; rather than having their choice made for them by virtue of a sellout, fans want to choose which events they will attend.

This tells us that consumers are more likely to buy a product if they think it is rare regardless of their previous interest level; that they will likely make a decision to buy it out of desperation to get that product because it keeps them in control of the situation.

Herein lies the key: If advertised that this is the only way to get tickets to the sellout not just at face value, but free, fans will jump at the opportunity to buy ticket packages to the other product.

Cue the haters. “Oh good for you. You came up with a promotion. Bravo! These things are thought of and shot down a thousand times over. Besides, this is for too narrow a segment of sports owners. You need:

1)      A sports conglomerate.

2)      It is only an option for those conglomerates with teams in the same market.

3)      Those owners with multiple teams in the same market also need to have competitive ticket sales and come close to selling out every game for this to work!”

Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.

1)      Yes, this is only for the owner that has investments in multiple teams.

2)      NO! They do not need to be in the same market and here’s why: A few years ago the marketing team at New England Sports Ventures saw that their MLB team, the Boston Red Sox, were among baseball’s top attractions and that they could market to the transplant fans of Red Sox Nation with what they called “Red Sox DestiNations.” Packages included, among other things: tickets to a Sox game, trip accommodations, and a meet and greet with a player. Now, NESV owns a Single-A affiliate of the major league club, the Salem Red Sox. Why couldn’t the group market some sort of DestiNation package for fans of the Salem Red Sox to go see the major league club and get tickets to a Salem game? This isn’t something just NESV could do, any of the ownership groups could do it!

NCAA Division I programs could benefit from this promotion better than pro owners.

How was this not thought of by college sport marketers before? College athletic departments own a monopoly on their fans, a fan of one college team will likely identify with the rest of the school’s teams. It’s rare to find a fan of Ohio State football and Michigan hockey.

“I want to see Duke play UNC. Oh, it’s sold out? I’m shocked!” If you want guaranteed seats to the big game you need season tickets to one of the school’s other sports. It could be further manipulated by offering a specific game for the draw product depending on the sport the fan chose to get season tickets too. Ditto for the quality and price of the seats they pick for said season ticket package. Duke as an example:

• Duke’s men’s basketball team and men’s lacrosse team are consistently among the most popular and most competitive in their respective sport each season, with Coach K’s guys taking the cake as one of the greatest draws in college sports.
• It wouldn’t make sense, then, for Duke lacrosse to be the team to market season tickets for to get a Duke-UNC basketball game. Duke football has not had a winning record since 1994. In that time their record has been 26-133, including 4 winless seasons.
• That struggling brand would benefit more from this promotion than any other. Buy a season ticket package to the football team and that gets you the Duke-UNC game. Buy season tickets to another sport and maybe you get Boston College; another, Virginia; another, Georgia Tech; another, an out-of-conference team, etc., etc.

Examples of package ideas similar to Ticket Realizing:

• Under the Kraft Group season ticket holders for the New England Revolution have access to Patriots TicketExchange where they can purchase tickets from season ticket holders. They also have a special pre-sale to major Gillette Stadium events.
• Despite separate ownerships, this June the Cleveland Indians and Cleveland Browns franchises offered the MVP Suite Package of one Browns game and two Indians game.

Fans would embrace this opportunity to get season tickets to a sport, plus the game they wanted to see for the same price as what it costs to buy tickets to the draw product from a reseller. Ticket sales and revenue would ultimately jump across the board. Everyone wins.

Here’s a list I’ve compiled of owners in the 4 major American sports and other sports franchises they own. NASCAR teams, sport venues, private enterprises, hosted tournaments, and things of that nature were not included. The list isn’t sorted in any particular way. If I was wrong about something or missed anyone or anything that should be on the list, please let me know.

Owner	Team	Sport	League
Jerry Reinsdorf	Chicago Bulls	Basketball	NBA
	Chicago White Sox	Baseball	MLB
	Phoenix Coyotes	Hockey	NHL
Arthur Blank	Atlanta Falcons	Football	NFL
	Georgia Force	Football	AFL
Jerry Jones	Dallas Cowboys	Football	NFL
	Dallas Desperados	Football	AFL
Clark Hunt	Kansas City Chiefs	Football	NFL
	FC Dallas	Soccer	MLS
	Columbus Crew	Soccer	MLS
Kraft Group	New England Patriots	Football	NFL
	New England Revolution	Soccer	MLS
Paul Allen	Seattle Seahawks	Football	NFL
	Portland Trail Blazers	Basketball	NBA
	Seattle Sounders FC	Soccer	MLS
Malcolm Glazer	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Football	NFL
	Manchester United FC	Soccer	Premier League
Atlanta Spirit LLC	Atlanta Hawks	Basketball	NBA
	Atlanta Thrashers	Hockey	NHL
Dan Gilbert	Cleveland Cavaliers	Basketball	NBA
	Lake Erie Monsters	Hockey	AHL
Kroenke Sports Enterprises	Denver Nuggets	Basketball	NBA
	Colorado Avalanche	Hockey	NHL
	Colorado Crush	Football	AFL
	Colorado Mammoth	Soccer	MLS
	Colorado Rapids	Lacrosse	NLL
	Arsenal FC	Soccer	Premier League
	Arsenal LFC	Soccer	Women’s Premier League
Pat Bowlen	Denver Broncos	Football	NFL
	Denver Outlaws	Lacrosse	MLL
Palace Sports & Entertainment	Detroit Pistons	Basketball	NBA
	Detroit Shock	Basketball	WNBA
	Asheville Tourists	Baseball	SAL
Glen Taylor	Minnesota Timberwolves	Basketball	NBA
	Minnesota Lynx	Basketball	WNBA
Madison Square Garden	New York Knicks	Basketball	NBA
	New York Rangers	Hockey	NHL
	New York Liberty	Basketball	WNBA
	Hartford Wolf Pack	Hockey	AHL
Comcast Spectator	Philadelphia 76ers	Basketball	NBA
	Philadelphia Flyers	Hockey	NHL
Spurs Sports & Entertainment	San Antonio Spurs	Basketball	NBA
	San Antonio Silver Stars	Basketball	WNBA
	San Antonio Rampage	Hockey	AHL
	Austin Toros	Basketball	NBA D-League
Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment	Toronto Maple Leafs	Hockey	NHL
	Toronto Raptors	Baskebtall	NBA
	Toronto FC	Soccer	MLS
	Toronto Marlies	Hockey	AHL
Larry H. Miller Sports and Entertainment	Utah Jazz	Basketball	NBA
	Salt Lake Bees	Baseball	PCL
Lincoln Holdings LLC	Washington Wizards	Basketball	NBA
	Washington Capitals	Hockey	NHL
	Washington Mystics	Basketball	WNBA
New England Sports Ventures	Boston Red Sox	Baseball	MLB
	Salem Red Sox	Baseball	Carolina League
Michael Iltch	Detroit Red Wings	Hockey	NHL
	Detroit Tigers	Baseball	MLB
Lewis Wolff	Oakland Athletics	Baseball	MLB
	San Jose Earthquakes	Soccer	MLS
Tom Hicks	Dallas Stars	Hockey	NHL
	Texas Rangers	Baseball	MLB
	Liverpool FC	Soccer	Premier League
B. Thomas Golisano	Buffalo Sabres	Hockey	NHL
	Buffalo Bandits	Lacrosse	NLL
Calgary Flames Ownership Group	Calgary Flames	Hockey	NHL
	Calgary Hitmen	Hockey	WHL
Peter Karmanos Jr.	Carolina Hurricanes	Hockey	NHL
	Plymouth Whalers	Hockey	OHL
	Florida Everblades	Hockey	ECHL
Anschutz Entertainment Group	Los Angeles Kings	Hockey	NHL
	Los Angeles Lakers (part)	Basketball	NBA
	Los Angeles Sparks (part)	Basketball	WNBA
	Los Angeles Galaxy	Soccer	MLS
	Manchester Monarchs	Hockey	AHL
	Reading Royals	Hockey	ECHL
	Eisbaren Berlin	Hockey	Deutsche Eishockey Liga
	Hamburg Freezers	Hockey	Deutsche Eishockey Liga
	Hammarby IF Fotboll	Soccer	Allsvenskan
	Djurgardens IF Hockey	Hockey	Elitserien
Eugene Melnyk	Ottawa Senators	Hockey	NHL
	Mississauga St. Michael’s Majors	Hockey	OHL
San Jose Sports and Entertainment Enterprises	San Jose Sharks	Hockey	NHL
	Cleveland Barons	Hockey	AHL
Sports Capital Partners Worldwide	St. Louis Blues	Hockey	NHL
	Real Salt Lake	Soccer	MLS
	Peoria Rivermen	Hockey	AHL

Fan Favorites

Every Friday I’ll post links to things I found interesting. It’s a new idea I call a “Link Dump.” Guaranteed you’ll find thousands of blogs start to do the same thing in the coming weeks and months. Just remember where you saw this idea first.

Gary: Landlord of the Flies By Stranger Than Eviction – This has nothing to do with sports but it’s just too hilarious to ignore. If you really want to get the whole feel for it make sure to start with the overview and work your way forward.

Keeping you posted By Shira Springer, Boston Globe – A well-written, informative feature on social media in sports.

Let’s celebrate ‘The Summer of Mailbag’ By Bill Simmons, ESPN.com – If you’re reading my blog chances are you’re already familiar with some Simmons stuff. It’s still a must read for me every time he puts one out, probably because it’s the only thing he writes anymore.

How I’d fix the economy By Rick Reilly, ESPN.com – I like it. I’d add that employees could be traded like when George Costanza from Seinfeld gets traded by the Yankees to Tyler Chicken for concessions items. Imagine having a no-trade clause in an employee contract? More importantly, though, would be entrance music for each employee every time they entered the conference room for an office meeting. I’d go with Hells Bells by AC/DC.

Top 10: Worst Sports Logos By Malcolm MacMillan, AskMen.com – My vote by league:

• NHL: Vancouver Canucks – I picture a discussion about the logo with a Canuck executive going something like this: “What is that in the logo anyway?” “It’s a killer whale.” “Ooohh, so it has nothing to do with what a Canuck is suppose to look like?” “No.” “A Canuck is slang for Canadian, right?” “Yes.” “So aren’t you guys just copying the Montreal Canadiens?” “….” In all honesty the Canucks have never had a good logo.
• MLB: Washington Nationals – This team name is one step above calling your team the “Americans or the Fourth of Julyers.” If you have a dumb team name you might as well have a dumb logo too, right? Their earlier logo also left something to desire.
• NFL: Cleveland Browns – Yes Drew Carey, I’m sure Cleveland rocks, but your logo is an orange helmet and your team name is the Browns. Even a kindergartener knows something is wrong here. And what was with all those other logos? I think you guys would just be better off moving to Baltimore and calling yourselves the Ravens. PS – There’s no way I’m posting something about Cleveland without posting one of my career favorite videos. Maybe this helps explain why they can’t even get color association right.
• NBA: Washington Wizards – I like to call this one “Merlin on Acid.” Let’s look at the evidence: The crescent moon has basketball seems. Have you ever looked at the moon and been like “I wonder if I could palm that?” Second, the guy couldn’t decide what to wear so he put on blue pajamas and threw on a tuxedo jacket over it, then he cut off the jacket sleeves for some sort of vest affect. Closer examination reveals his beard and jacket combo make a “W”. Next, he flexes his body into the reverse Shawn Michaels. Finally, while spinning a basketball on his left hand he points at it with his right hand and clicks his fingers, that’s the only way to explain the spark. Know what else? There were no Bullets in their logo when they were the Washington Bullets. What’s up wit dat?

GRIP: Given Runners per Inning Pitched

UPDATE: I’m changing the title of this formula from “Given Runs per Inning Pitched” to “Given Runners per Inning Pitched.“ I just think it makes more sense.

The three most commonly used statistics in analyzing a pitcher are ERA, K/BB and WHIP. Each has its pros and cons but generally they each get the job done. Earned Run Average tells you how many runs you can expect a pitcher to give up through 9 innings. Strikeout to Walk Ratio gives you the pitcher’s ability to control the strike zone and how batters react to him. And Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched generalizes how many batters a pitcher allows to reach base each inning. Problems include defensive factors, the inability to measure if a pitcher is a fly ball/groundball guy, and that where each accounts for one part of the pitcher’s production you must take each into account and assume that each is more valuable than the last.

Well in my amateur sabermetric studies I created a new stat and solved this problem (wow, aren’t I awesome?).

Allow me to introduce you to GRIP, Given Runners per Innings Pitched:

((TB + BB) – (K + DP)) / IP

This bastard child of WHIP and K/BB solves problems that the two of them create and was then adopted by ERA and raised as its own.

First its “problem.” Any sabermetrician will tell you in a few ways that the twin pillars of pitcher analysis are Park Factors and Defensive Efficiency. Namely, that Park A allows more home runs on Sundays, in April, in prime numbered years than Park B which always allows for more ground-rule doubles on Saturdays except for during a full moon. Defensive Efficiency: the infielders have no range and the outfielders have no arms so obviously a baserunner will have an advantage.

And there ends the problem. This statistic doesn’t factor the park or a pitcher’s batting average on balls in play. Well, here’s something to think about: do park factors and defense matter if a pitcher does his job? No.

Now if you’ll excuse me I’m going to start using my copy of Baseball Between the Numbers as a coaster.

A good pitcher will be a good pitcher in any ballpark regardless of outside factors. I agree that they will affect the numbers and could make a significant difference on the game, but the box score gives the onus of a win and a loss to a pitcher, not his defense and certainly not the field he’s playing on.

GRIP Explained:

GRIP measures total bases achieved rather than hits. WHIP would tell you that a home run an inning and a single per inning are equal, it would even tell you that two walks per inning are worse than one home run in an inning, and I’m telling WHIP to take a nap. That’s asinine.

K/BB works great and is entirely independent of defensive and park factors but it doesn’t tell you anything about hits.

The biggest problem stat-geeks have with ERA is its dependency on defense and park factors, which is why ERA was so quick to adopt GRIP as its own.

Strikeouts aren’t requisite of good pitching but they certainly do make the job easier. Indeed there are situations (bases loaded no outs, runner at third one out, etc.) where a strikeout is the best possible option and as such should be factored when discussing a pitcher’s numbers. Furthermore, ground balls are more valuable than fly balls and pitchers need to work in situations with runners on-base so it should be important to note how many double-plays result in a pitcher’s performance.

Therefore, taking strikeouts and double plays from total bases and walks gives you the total picture as to all things valuable that a pitcher does:

• You get the idea of his command of the strike zone.
• You better know if he is a ground ball or fly ball pitcher.
• You know how he works in important moments.

Using GRIP and the other three traditional metrics let’s find out who has had the best pitching this season.

The 30 MLB teams ranks 1-30 with the best GRIPs.

	TEAM	LG	RA	K/BB	WHIP	GRIP
	Los Angeles Dodgers	NL	3.77	2.02	1.264	0.789
	San Francisco Giants	NL	3.75	2.14	1.316	0.858
	Atlanta Braves	NL	4.38	2.12	1.342	0.902
	Chicago Cubs	NL	4.16	2.03	1.346	0.954
	Boston Red Sox	AL	4.37	2.3	1.373	0.983
	St. Louis Cardinals	NL	4.25	2.19	1.289	0.991
	Kansas City Royals	AL	4.82	2.1	1.361	1.010
	Seattle Mariners	AL	4.19	1.93	1.333	1.021
	Chicago White Sox	AL	4.5	2.18	1.342	1.023
	Florida Marlins	NL	4.83	1.97	1.414	1.048
	New York Yankees	AL	4.82	2.08	1.366	1.076
	Colorado Rockies	NL	4.73	2.11	1.391	1.087
	Arizona Diamondbacks	NL	4.84	2.15	1.385	1.088
	Toronto Blue Jays	AL	4.52	2.16	1.354	1.095
	Oakland Athletics	AL	4.75	2.05	1.392	1.096
	Detroit Tigers	AL	4.65	1.83	1.418	1.103
	Cincinnati Reds	NL	4.39	1.72	1.360	1.106
	Tampa Bay Rays	AL	4.63	2.01	1.361	1.106
	San Diego Padres	NL	4.98	1.91	1.392	1.113
	Minnesota Twins	AL	4.43	2.39	1.309	1.126
	Houston Astros	NL	4.57	2.1	1.399	1.137
	New York Mets	NL	4.68	1.67	1.426	1.150
	Milwaukee Brewers	NL	4.73	1.96	1.385	1.182
	Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim	AL	4.97	1.91	1.444	1.198
	Pittsburgh Pirates	NL	4.47	1.5	1.394	1.247
	Texas Rangers	AL	4.59	1.66	1.388	1.261
	Philadelphia Phillies	NL	4.89	2.01	1.454	1.297
	Cleveland Indians	AL	5.58	1.58	1.541	1.367
	Baltimore Orioles	AL	5.57	1.83	1.486	1.442
	Washington Nationals	NL	5.75	1.35	1.560	1.484

Top-10 Starters (at least 10 starts):

	NAME	TEAM	LG	ERA	SO/BB	WHIP	GRIP
	Tim Lincecum	SFG	NL	2.23	4.7	1.050	0.132
	Dan Haren	ARI	NL	2.16	7.93	0.826	0.231
	Javier Vazquez	ATL	NL	3.05	5.65	1.071	0.295
	Zack Greinke	KCR	AL	2	6.32	1.055	0.354
	Chris Carpenter	STL	NL	2.32	5.27	0.824	0.373
	Felix Hernandez	SEA	AL	2.62	3.35	1.174	0.429
	Justin Verlander	DET	AL	3.54	3.71	1.198	0.439
	Jake Peavy	SDP	NL	3.97	3.29	1.188	0.490
	Chad Billingsley	LAD	NL	3.14	2.25	1.205	0.490
	Josh Johnson	FLO	NL	2.76	3.03	1.128	0.507

Bottom-10 Starters (at least 10 starts):

	NAME	TEAM	LG	ERA	SO/BB	WHIP	GRIP
	Matt Harrison	TEX	AL	6.11	1.48	1.642	1.705
	Jamie Moyer	PHI	NL	5.72	2.13	1.472	1.706
	Brian Moehler	HOU	NL	5.64	2.14	1.552	1.716
	Trevor Cahill	OAK	AL	4.55	1.18	1.441	1.720
	Manny Parra	MIL	NL	7.52	1.34	1.918	1.747
	David Huff	CLE	AL	6.06	1.88	1.519	1.750
	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	NL	5.85	1.32	1.573	1.767
	Bartolo Colon	CHW	AL	4.23	1.8	1.500	1.789
	Fausto Carmona	CLE	AL	7.42	0.88	1.813	1.846
	Scott Olsen	WAS	NL	6.04	1.78	1.712	1.941

Baseball’s Closers (at least 10 save opportunities):

	NAME	TEAM	LG	SV	BS	ERA	SO/BB	WHIP	GRIP
	Jonathan Broxton	LAD	NL	20	2	2.72	4.06	0.857	-0.580
	Joe Nathan	MIN	AL	22	2	1.35	6.14	0.750	-0.270
	Joakim Soria	KCR	AL	12	2	1.74	3.86	1.016	-0.145
	Heath Bell	SDP	NL	23	1	1.49	2.67	1.046	0.028
	David Aardsma	SEA	AL	17	1	1.41	2.18	1.148	0.052
	Andrew Bailey	OAK	AL	9	4	2.03	2.85	1.027	0.103
	J.P. Howell	TBR	AL	6	5	1.63	2.88	1.086	0.103
	Trevor Hoffman	MIL	NL	18	1	1.93	3.8	0.943	0.129
	Mariano Rivera	NYY	AL	21	1	2.6	14	0.923	0.231
	Francisco Cordero	CIN	NL	20	1	1.8	2	1.143	0.314
	Frank Francisco	TEX	AL	14	2	2.1	4	0.935	0.351
	Francisco Rodriguez	NYM	NL	21	3	1.59	1.82	1.185	0.353
	Ryan Franklin	SLP	NL	20	1	0.84	3.43	0.844	0.375
	Brian Fuentes	LAA	AL	24	3	3.38	3.56	1.227	0.375
	Mike Gonzalez	ATL	NL	9	4	3.2	3.18	1.246	0.381
	Brian Wilson	SFG	NL	21	4	3.41	3	1.216	0.405
	Huston Street	COL	NL	19	1	2.8	4.1	1.075	0.425
	George Sherrill	BAL	AL	18	3	2.43	2.67	1.140	0.570
	Chad Qualls	ARI	NL	15	4	3.93	7.5	1.165	0.670
	Bobby Jenks	CHW	AL	19	2	3.14	4.67	1.047	0.698
	Fernando Rodney	DET	AL	17	0	4.11	1.75	1.314	0.771
	Jose Valverde	HOU	NL	6	4	4.08	4	1.075	0.792
	LaTroy Hawkins	HOU	NL	10	3	2.48	2.64	1.211	0.798
	Kevin Gregg	CHC	NL	14	3	3.62	2.31	1.286	0.804
	Jonathan Papelbon	BOS	AL	20	2	1.75	2.06	1.333	0.806
	Kerry Wood	CLE	AL	10	4	5.08	1.94	1.447	0.988
	Matt Capps	PIT	NL	18	2	4.88	1.82	1.482	1.120
	Matt Lindstrom	FLO	NL	14	2	6.52	1.3	1.897	1.414
	Joel Hanrahan	WAS	NL	5	5	7.71	2.5	1.959	1.653
	Brad Lidge	PHI	NL	16	6	7.06	1.94	1.807	1.670

Interesting things to note:

• Teams are evenly disbursed throughout the chart regardless of their league affiliation.
• Natural Rivals Baltimore and Washington are second to last and last, respectively.
• Despite being tied for first in the AL-West, the Angels and Rangers are 24^th and 26^th in GRIP.
• Baseball’s Top-3 Closers have negative GRIPs. A perfect Grip is -3.00.
• The Philadelphia Phillies are 1^st in the NL-East and have the 27^th overall GRIP. The Marlins are a game behind them and rank 10^th in GRIP.
• Most interesting AL All-Star selections: Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox and Tim Wakefield, Boston Red Sox (18^th and 37^th ranked AL Starters); Brian Fuentes, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (8^th ranked closer).
• Most interesting NL All-Star Selections: Jason Marquis, Colorado Rockies (40^th ranked NL Starter).

So there you have it. It isn’t perfect, but no stat is.

Fan Favorites

Every Friday I’ll post links to things I found interesting. It’s a new idea I call a “Link Dump.” Guaranteed you’ll find thousands of blogs start to do the same thing in the coming weeks and months. Just remember where you saw this idea first.

Brock Lesnar: “I Like to Punish People” By Nate Penn, Maxim – A grand piece on the life and times of a former wrestler, former WWE champ, former Minnesota Viking, and current UFC-Meathead extraordinaire, Brock Lesnar.

Talkin’ about the age-33 falloff phenomenon, with Bill James By Joe Posnanski, Sports Illustrated – Why no one should be surprised with some big name, early struggles, this baseball season.

How to Persuade a Fantasy Jury By Nando Di Fino, Wall Street Journal – Good, now if only I could get the idiots in my league to make a trade with me.

Free vs Freely Distributed By Mark Cuban, Blog Maverick – Insightful? Yes. Would he wager his fortune on what he preaches? Probably not.